Talking Tactics: Bayern Munich need to contain Borussia Dortmund’s attack

Fast Forward: Bayern Munich face Dortmund in Matchday 28

Bayern Munich have resumed their footballing action with two consecutive victories. However, the Bavarians found themselves in a tough spot, trying to crack open a stubborn Union Berlin side. Eintracht Frankfurt, too, shook them twice after going three goals down in the first half on Saturday.

On the other hand, Borussia Dortmund have restarted their journey in a similar style. Lucien Favre earned his side the bragging rights in the Revierderby with a four-nil victory. They also found the net twice against Wolfsburg at the Volkswagen Arena.

Favre has favoured a 3-4-3 formation lately. With Erling Haaland at the tip of attack, goals have been flowing for Dortmund. The Norwegian striker has turned the tides for Borussia Dortmund. He has scored ten league goals and bagged two assists in just 692 minutes, averaging 1.3 goals per 90 minutes. He has sealed his spot in the Dortmund lineup and is expected to start against Bayern. Jadon Sancho, carrying a minor calf injury, has been warming the bench for the past two games. The English winger remains a doubt for Der Klassiker.

That should not be a major problem for Favre with Hakimi back in top form as the right wing-back. The Moroccan has found solid support from Łukasz Piszczek playing as the right center-back. The Polish veteran has established a strong defensive unit with Mats Hummels playing in the heart of the defense. Manuel Akanji is expected to start on the left side of the defensive zone.

Dortmund’s attack will likely involve Thorgan Hazard and Julian Brandt playing in proximity as the attacking midfielders. They formed a solid partnership against Schalke, playing astute link-up play in behind the Royal Blues’ aggressive pressing midfield. As a result, Dortmund has displayed some spine-chilling attacks from wide areas. Raphael Guerreiro has scored three goals in his last two appearances.

The xG analysis gives another dimension to Dortmund’s recent feat. Comparing their Hinrunde fixtures against Schalke and Wolfsburg, Dortmund clocked a total xG of 2.5. This is akin to their current xG tally of 2.49 from their last two matches. However, scaling this down to the number of shots taken, Dortmund achieved an xG per shot of 0.1 in the Hinrunde for these two fixtures. This figure currently stands at 0.146, which is a massive improvement of 46% in the quality of shots.

Bayern must be wary of Dortmund’s attacking threat. Thiago Alcantara’s presence remains vital for Flick, albeit his appearance is a doubt for the Klassiker. He missed the previous clash with Eintracht due to an adductor issue. Some good news in the attacking front as Serge Gnabry can be expected to feature in the starting lineup. The German forward appeared in a cameo role on Saturday. Philippe Coutinho looks set to miss another match with an injury.

Die Roten should go for a 4-2-3-1 formation from their current lot.

"Neuer Pavard-Boateng-Alaba-Davies Kimmich-Goretzka Coman-Muller-Gnabry Lewandowski"

Sancho or no Sancho, Davies will have an important task to take control of his flank. In the center, Bayern can purchase insurance for themselves by cutting the passing supplies to Haaland. Applying a rigorous defensive mechanism, one that was displayed in the prior Klassiker, can do the job for Flick and his team. Der Klassiker, part two, is expected to be an open game. Given the current form, quality of goals, and scoring patterns, I am backing Die Roten to clinch a 3-1 victory on Tuesday.