Talking Tactics: How can Bayern Munich beat Union Berlin’s midfield trap?
By Kartik Sahni
Fast Forward: Matchday 26
Die Eisernen’s form has dipped since the winter break. Their Hinrunde performance clocked an average xPoints metric of 1.28. In their previous eight league outings, the same metric clocked at 0.9. As per xG analysis in the first half of the season, Union clocked 1.34 xG per game, with an xGA metric of 1.59 per game. The Ruckrunde saw this metric change to 1.24 and 2 for xG and XGA per game, respectively.
So, what has changed for Union Berlin in 2020? Let’s try to analyse their current playing style with statistical data.
Union Berlin has favoured a 3-4-3 after the winter break. Urs Fischer is expected to use a similar formation against Bayern. Their pressing technique seems to give more space to the opponents. The PPDA metric for Union has increased from 11.7 in the Hinrunde to 12.52 in the Ruckrunde. Perhaps their 3-4-3 is more likely to be used for a solid defensive structure when out of possession.
After the winter break, Die Eisernen’s key passes per 90 mins have been recorded at 8.62. This was earlier clocked at 8.72 in the Hinrunde. It falls perfectly in sync with their lower xG tally compared to Hinrunde.
Nonetheless, using a long-ball approach remains their favourite weapon during build-up and transitions. They have contested the highest number of aerial duels in the league, at an average rate of 53 per game. Union Berlin are expected to attack using the width from their preferred wing-backs, Christopher Trimmel and Christopher Lenz.
Union will probably defend in a 5-4-1 structure. Bayern can look to gain an advantage using a 4-3-3 formation. Die Roten’s natural style of playing with a high line under Flick can be fruitful. The visitors should look to open space in the center and half-spaces by stretching the lines in the middle third.
The long break from football has given Robert Lewandowski the time to recuperate from his injury. Nonetheless, Thomas Muller can be given the role as the sole striker should Flick decide to rest the Polish forward. A false nine tactical setup can be used in this space for Bayern’s Raumdeuter, while Serge Gnabry can look to start as the left-winger.
Joshua Kimmich, in the number six role, must be provided support by Thiago Alcantara and Leon Goretzka lining slightly ahead of him. Using this setup, Die Roten can overload the central space using Gnabry, Muller, Goretzka, Thiago, and Kimmich. This five-man midfield structure during possession can opt to play between the lines against Union Berlin’s midfield line of four players.
Bayern can use their midfield-heavy cavalry to lure pressure from Union’s defensive line. By opening gaps in such a situation, the Rekordmeister can exploit the wide areas. Kingsley Coman on the right flank and Alphonso Davies’s overlapping run from the left side will be a viable option to exploit the wide areas.
"Neuer Pavard-Boateng-Alaba-Davies Kimmich Goretka-Thiago Coman-Muller-Gnabry"
Next. Three Bayern players likely to shine against Union Berlin. dark
Score Prediction:
Union Berlin 0-2 Bayern Munich
By winning the midfield battle and quality of their attacking personnel, Die Roten should be able to continue their unbeaten run in 2020.