Bayern Munich will have to work hard to find space against a low block when they host Augsburg in matchday 25 of the Bundesliga
Bayern Munich extended their lead to three points at the top of the table last weekend by hammering six goals past Hoffenheim. Robert Lewandowski was barely missed by defending champions. Hansi Flick exemplified the beauty of teamwork and tactics that have been seeded within Bayern’s DNA. The Rekordmeister look unstoppable at the moment.
There was more success in the mid-week. Bayern progressed to the semi-finals of the DFB Pokal. Die Roten edged past Schalke as the match ended by a goal to nil. Their next competitive fixture is a derby against local rivals, FC Augsburg.
It seems a pretty easy fixture to conquer, albeit Augsburg can repeat their feat displayed in the Hinrunde. In matchday number eight of the Bundesliga, Augsburg denied Bayern two crucial points. The reigning champions were held in a stalemate. Martin Schmidt might use a similar strategy at the Allianz Arena. Bayern Munich has been all about “goals galore” in their past few fixtures. Augsburg’s defensive scheme will be a real test for Bayern’s menacing attack.
Let us have a look at key highlights from Bayern’s previous league fixture against Augsburg, and then predict the expected scenario from matchday 25.
Rewind: Matchday 8 – Augsburg’s utilization of the wings
The hosts took an early lead in the first minute of the game. They used a heavy pressing technique after taking the lead. Martin Schmidt used a 4-1-4-1 formation on paper. The formation switched to a 4-1-3-2 while defending from an advanced position. Since they took an early lead, the strategy was working fine for Augsburg. They aimed for pressing Bayern using six players while their defensive line held a medium block at the back. Florian Niederlechner and Marco Richter led the first wave of pressure. Ruben Vargas, Rani Khedira, and Jan Moravek controlled the second lane. Reece Oxford shielded the defense.
Augsburg had effectively forced Bayern to play a pass on the wings. The Rekordmeister built their attack using two center-halves in a 2-3-2-3 structure. The full-backs surged slightly high as they flanked Javi Martinez in the number six role. Thiago Alcantara, who started alongside Martinez, pushed high with Philippe Coutinho in the attacking midfield zone.
Niederlechner and Richter pressed the two center-backs while also blocking the passing channel to Martinez. The moment a pass was played to a full-back, Augsburg would overload the space around him to regain possession. Also, Augsburg’s full-back would surge forward to press the ball on the flanks.
Even while attacking, Augsburg opted for creating attacks from the wide areas. As per WhoScored.com, 54% of Augsburg’s attacks originated from the right side of the pitch. The hosts targeted the wings when trying to initiate a counterattack.
Rewind: Matchday 8 – Bayern tweaked their build-up
Augsburg’s strategy to press aggressively and force Bayern on the wings was transitory. Bayern responded with a slight change in the build-up process. Martinez pulled back to join the defensive line alongside Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez. Joshua Kimmich made an underlapping run in the half-space to join Thiago, Coutinho, and Robert Lewandowski in the final third. Serge Gnabry hugged the touchline to provide width on the right side. Similarly, either of David Alaba, who replaced Niklas Sule in the 12th minute, or Kinglsey Coman covered the wings from the left side of the park.
A simple technique that yielded two key benefits. First, Bayern could pass the ball through pressure, among their defensive line of three players. Secondly, Vargas and Richter were now forced to pullback to shield the center and half-space, which was clogged by at least eight Bayern Munich players.
As a result, Augsburg were stretched back vertically. The distance between Niederlechner and Augsburg’s midfield line increased, which created space for either of a center-back or Martinez to carry the ball.
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Moreover, Augsburg were restricted to maintain a compact structure to deny Bayern a passing channel in the central area. This created space on the wings for Die Roten. Bayern exploited this space with aplomb. Bayern could easily play short passes to feed a player on the wings. Alternatively, they played a plethora of long diagonal passes to find a player in these areas. Both of Bayern’s goals stemmed from this set-up.
To sum, Augsburg settled for a low/medium block to defend against Bayern. The xG metric reflects a close encounter between the two. However, the expected points score of 2 for Bayern and 0.79 for Augsburg explains the difference in the quality of their gameplay and chances. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)
Fast Forward: Matchday 25
Martin Schmidt has used a variety of four-man defense formation since the beginning of Ruckrunde. He is likely to use a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-5-1 formation against Die Roten. The priority will be to lock the midfield and stop Bayern from penetrating between the lines.
Bayern can look to build the attack with comfortable possession. Augsburg’s PPDA metric is the highest in the Bundesliga this season, at 15.87. Concerning Ruckrunde this season, Augsburg has allowed 17.45 passes for each defensive action taken in the opposition’s half. Thus, a low block can be expected from Augsburg as they will look to gain possession deep inside their half. Their strategy will be to use their width and speed from the wings to hit the defending champions on the break. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)
Bayern must respond with a 4-2-3-1 formation. It will be crucial to position their players between the opposition’s lines. The core intention will be to use possession for stretching Augsburg’s lines and create passing channels. Robert Lewandowski remains out with an injury, so Joshua Zirkzee can find himself starting upfront. Serge Gnabry, Bayern’s man-in-form, remains punters’ favourite to find his name on the score sheet. Kingsley Coman remains a doubt for the derby. Philippe Coutinho is expected to fill his spot on the left-wing. I expect Hansi Flick to name the same starting eleven that featured against Hoffenheim.
"Neuer Pavard-Boateng-Alaba-Davies Kimmich-Thiago Gnabry-Muller-Coutinho Zirkzee"
Augsburg are going through a poor run of form since the onset of winter break. They have just four points in their last seven league games. Their away form puts them in a worse position. They have lost all of their three away games in the Ruckrunde without scoring any goal. Nonetheless, the xGA tally on these occasions was recorded at 4.44 as opposed to the nine goals conceded.
Moreover, they have allowed their opponents to complete only 5.3 passes per match within an estimated 20 yards of their goal on the away turf. This puts the spotlight on Augsburg’s defensive theme and their inherent tactics to operate from a low block. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)
I foresee Bayern to dominate their time on the ball. The strategy used against Hoffenheim provides the best example. In a state of a high defensive line, Rekordmeister must penetrate Augsburg’s compact defensive block using long passes. Such a strategy is likely to disrupt their shape and open space between the lines. While attacking in numbers, the chance to score from a second-ball situation would be higher.
Die Roten are expected to end this week with another victory. Given the recent circumstances and form, Bayern are in a favourable position to finish the game with at least three goals to their name. Manuel Neuer can expect to keep another clean sheet in matchday 25.