Talking Tactics: Bayern Munich vs FC Augsburg

Fast Forward: Matchday 25

Martin Schmidt has used a variety of four-man defense formation since the beginning of Ruckrunde. He is likely to use a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-5-1 formation against Die Roten. The priority will be to lock the midfield and stop Bayern from penetrating between the lines.

Bayern can look to build the attack with comfortable possession. Augsburg’s PPDA metric is the highest in the Bundesliga this season, at 15.87. Concerning Ruckrunde this season, Augsburg has allowed 17.45 passes for each defensive action taken in the opposition’s half. Thus, a low block can be expected from Augsburg as they will look to gain possession deep inside their half. Their strategy will be to use their width and speed from the wings to hit the defending champions on the break. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)

Bayern must respond with a 4-2-3-1 formation. It will be crucial to position their players between the opposition’s lines. The core intention will be to use possession for stretching Augsburg’s lines and create passing channels. Robert Lewandowski remains out with an injury, so Joshua Zirkzee can find himself starting upfront. Serge Gnabry, Bayern’s man-in-form, remains punters’ favourite to find his name on the score sheet. Kingsley Coman remains a doubt for the derby. Philippe Coutinho is expected to fill his spot on the left-wing. I expect Hansi Flick to name the same starting eleven that featured against Hoffenheim.

"Neuer Pavard-Boateng-Alaba-Davies Kimmich-Thiago Gnabry-Muller-Coutinho Zirkzee"

Augsburg are going through a poor run of form since the onset of winter break. They have just four points in their last seven league games. Their away form puts them in a worse position. They have lost all of their three away games in the Ruckrunde without scoring any goal. Nonetheless, the xGA tally on these occasions was recorded at 4.44 as opposed to the nine goals conceded.

Moreover, they have allowed their opponents to complete only 5.3 passes per match within an estimated 20 yards of their goal on the away turf. This puts the spotlight on Augsburg’s defensive theme and their inherent tactics to operate from a low block. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)

I foresee Bayern to dominate their time on the ball. The strategy used against Hoffenheim provides the best example. In a state of a high defensive line, Rekordmeister must penetrate Augsburg’s compact defensive block using long passes. Such a strategy is likely to disrupt their shape and open space between the lines. While attacking in numbers, the chance to score from a second-ball situation would be higher.

Die Roten are expected to end this week with another victory. Given the recent circumstances and form, Bayern are in a favourable position to finish the game with at least three goals to their name. Manuel Neuer can expect to keep another clean sheet in matchday 25.