Talking Tactics: TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayern Munich

Fast Forward: Matchday 24

Hoffenheim seem to have altered their strategy slightly in the Ruckrunde. Die Kraichgauer have clocked an xG of 1.84 per game since the winter break compared with 1.38 per game in the Hinrunde. Their pressing intensity has been increased meagerly with Hoffenheim’s PPDA metric recorded at 11.67 in the Ruckrunde.

The interesting thing to notice is the number of passes that Hoffenheim have completed within 20 yards of the opposition’s goal. They have amassed 6.5 passes per game in this zone since the onset of Bundesliga’s second half of the 2019/20 campaign. The tally was earlier at 5.6 passes per game during the Hinrunde. (Stats courtesy: Understat.com)

Alfred Schreuder is likely to go for a 3-5-2 system against Bayern. Andrej Kramaric and Christoph Baumgartner are expected to lead the attack. Hoffenheim will aim to use width from Robert Skov and Pavel Kaderabek as the wing-backs.

Bayern will, unfortunately, travel without their star striker, Robert Lewandowski. The Polish forward picked up an injury against Chelsea and is likely to be out for around four weeks. Kingsley Coman will also not play against Hoffenheim due to a slight strain. Hansi Flick should opt for a 4-3-3. Thomas Muller can be utilized in a false nine role. The midfield shall be occupied by Joshua Kimmich as the sole pivot with Thiago Alcantara and Leon Goretzka as box-to-box players. Serge Gnabry and Philippe Coutinho can play on the wings.

Alternatively, Alphonso Davies can be used as the left-winger instead of Coutinho. This system would see Alvaro Odriozola on the right-back position. David Alaba can move back to his usual left-back spot. The French duo of Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez can take the center-back duties.

Predicted starting lineup:

"Neuer Odriozola-Pavard-Hernandez-Alaba Kimmich Goretzka   –   Thiago Gnabry            –    Muller    –         Davies"

Using Davies on the left flank can be beneficial for the Bavarians. Hoffenheim have improved the attacking side of their game, albeit the defensive side has taken a toll. Despite conceding only eight goals in their last six league outings, they have an xGA tally of 13.36. It indicates the high quality of chances being created against Hoffenheim.

In Hinrunde, the xGA score per game for Hoffenheim was clocked at 1.63. It currently stands at 2.23, which is a massive 37% increase. Therefore, Bayern can look to exploit the space behind Hoffenheim’s wings-backs. Hoffenheim can be lured into pressing in Bayern’s half. In such a scenario, central overload from Kimmich, Goretzka, Thiago, and a “false-nine” Muller can be used to progress the ball. The speedy forwards, Gnabry and Davies can run-in behind Hoffenheim’s last line of defense. Bayern’s high-flying full-backs can further flood the attack through overlapping runs as they penetrate the final third.

This is somewhat a “Kloppesque” tactic, but it could work great in Bayern’s favour. Despite Lewandowski’s absence, I foresee Bayern to score at least three goals at the PreZero Arena on Saturday and add three more points to their tally.