Fast Forward: Matchday 23
There has not been a major difference in Paderborn’s performance even after the winter break. They are placed at the bottom of the table. Steffen Baumgart has bagged a single victory in Ruckrunde, thus far. Their expected points per game stood at 0.95 in the Hinrunde. It currently stands at 0.97 in the Ruckrunde.
However, the defense seemed to have solidified over the past five fixtures. The xGA metric has reduced to 1.69 per match in the Ruckrunde. This was recorded at 1.92 per match during the Hinrunde. Let’s analyze this further to assimilate their tactical theme. Paderborn’s pressing in the opposition’s half has seen a slight improvement.
The Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action (PPDA) metric reflects a score of 11.92 for the Ruckrunde which was recorded at 11.49 in the first half of the season. This seems to be the core factor that has allowed Paderborn to complete 4.6 passes per match within 20 yards of the opposition’s goal in their last five league games. To put this in perspective, Paderborn clocked 3.6 passes per match for the same metric during the Hinrunde.
Paderborn make use of a soft pressing technique from their midfielders. They use triggers to increase the pressing intensity. Paderborn have used an attacking 4-3-3 template in their last few fixtures. When out of possession, Paderborn are expected to use a 4-4-2 (or its variations) to defend against Bayern’s build-up. Abdelhamid Sabiri, Sebastian Vasiliadis, and Klaus Gjasula are expected to start the match. They will provide a compact structure in the center of midfield. Antwi-Adjei and Kai Proger shall continue to operate as wide forwards. Dennis Srbeny is likely to lead the attack in Streli Mamba’s stead.
Hansi Flick should revert with a 4-3-3 in a double-pivot system. Leon Goretzka can be introduced in the attacking midfielder role. Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman should continue to flank Lewandowski in the attack. Bayern has their Champions League fixture against Chelsea piling up in the next week. Thus, Thomas Muller and Coutinho can be used as second-half subs for tactical reasons. Paderborn is likely to use a medium block against Bayern.
Baumgart will aim for winning the ball in the midfield tussle and feed it to the wingers for a quick attack. Srbeny is expected to be used as a false nine during the build-up. Their 4-3-3 has been a deadly weapon for attacking from the flanks. As per Understat.com, Proger and Antwi-Adjei have delivered 4.6 key passes (combined) per 90 minutes in their last five matches.
Bayern can opt for building their attack with three defenders. Pavard should be pinned at the back with two other center-halves during the build-up. As a result, Kimmich can look to overlap Gnabry on the right flank. Pavard can, therefore, play as an inverted full-back. The benefits here are two-fold. First, Gnabry will have a partner allowing him to invert and play as the second striker. Secondly, Pavard will have to cover less distance to chase Antwi-Adjei during Paderborn’s attack on a break. Moreover, the central space will be covered adequately during transitions with Thiago Alcantara in support.
On the left-hand side, Alphonso Davies should be given the freedom to join the attack. Paderborn will, thus, be forced to pull Proger deep in their half to defend with an added threat from Coman on the left-wing. The above tactic shall allow Bayern to secure their defense against Paderborn’s wingers. Additionally, Bayern will be able to build the attack with at least five players in their half.
It will be an intriguing tactical battle on Friday, but Bayern should comfortably clinch a comfortable victory considering their form and style of play in the past six weeks.