Talking Tactics: FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich

Fast Forward: Matchday 22

Markus Gisdol has turned the tides since taking the reins at RheinEnergie Stadion. Achim Beierlorzer’s era saw them struggling in the relegation zone with two wins in 11 league outings. Their current situation is a vast improvement. Gisdol has moved them to the 13th position. The former Hamburger SV coach has won five Bundesliga games in nine matches. Cologne have scored 17 goals while conceding 15 under Gisdol’s tutelage. They scored seven goals less and conceded an additional eight when Beierlorzer was in charge. While Gisdol’s current tenure has clocked merely two extra xPoints over Beierlorzer’s tally of 10.63, Cologne have amassed 17 points in their last nine league games.

Let’s delve further into Cologne’s statistical data to analyze Markus Gisdol’s game strategy and tactics. The data primarily depicts Cologne’s strategy to defend with a slightly lower block, vis-à-vis Beierlorzer’s template, with a higher propensity to raid the opposition’s half. The PPDA metric, in sync with the xG analysis, explains the same. Cologne has been solid defensively. Their xGA metric places them as the seventh-best team since Gisdol’s arrival with a tally of 13.78. Gisdol has also improved its expected goals tally to 14.44 compared with 12.3 under Beierlorzer. Concerning their pressing intensity, Cologne has allowed 11.2 passes (adjusted for each defensive action taken in opposition’s half) under Gisdol. This tally was recorded as 9.72 under Beierlorzer.

Now a quick look at the “DEEP” metric. This will give us an overview of the amount of time Cologne spend within 20 yards of the opponent’s goal. They have completed 44 passes in this zone since Gisdol has been appointed. Earlier, Cologne completed 66 passes. Tracing the same scenario for their opponents within 20 yards of Cologne’s goal, the tally stands at 62 under Beierlorzer and 64 under Gisdol.

One can now join the dots and decipher Gisdol’s strategy. Cologne will defend tight in their half and will use quick passes to attack their opponents. They would shy away from pressing aggressively with a high line. Their most prudent tactic is to lure the opponents in their half, regain possession, and hunt them with intense speed. As per Bundesliga.com, Cologne have clocked average sprints of 260 per match in their last five league fixtures.

Gisdol’s form at RheinEnergy has been breathtaking. Cologne are unbeaten at home since mid-November 2019. They have scored 11 goals on their turf while conceding only two, since matchday 12. Cologne would be happy to give Bayern their time on the ball. A 4-1-4-1 formation is expected from the hosts. Jhon Cordoba and Ismail Jakobs remain a major threat in attack. Bayern should use a double pivot system. A 4-2-3-1 formation would be the best option for Hansi Flick.

Bayern faithful were buoyed by the news of Joshua Kimmich and Alphonso Davies. The duo trained on Wednesday and should start against Cologne.

Thiago Alcantara and Kimmich are expected to play a crucial role in playing between Cologne’s diamond structure in the attack. Using a 4-1-4-1 on paper, Cologne reshape themselves in a 4-1-3-1-1. They tend to leave acres of space, especially in the half-spaces, between the lines connecting Jonas Hector and their attacking duo of Jhon Cordoba and either of Mark Uth or Dominick Drexler.

Alternatively, Bayern can use their preferred 2-3-2-3 in the build-up. Their inverted full-backs will provide extra space for Thiago to move upfront with Leon Gortezka in the attack. Further, Bayern’s wingers can stretch the lines horizontally and create space in the center and half-region.

If Cologne opts for a compact structure, then Bayern can use their switch-play and feed the wingers. Ivan Perisic remains sidelined. This indicates an all-German line-up in the attacking midfield zone for Bayern. Serge Gnabry and Thomas Muller are expected to flank Goretzka in the number ten role. Muller and Goretzka’s performances have been top-notch recently, and thus, Philippe Coutinho is expected to spend the majority of his time on the bench in matchday 22.

I foresee Cologne to give a tough fight. Keeping a clean sheet at RheinEnergy should be the utmost priority for Bayern, let alone allowing Cologne to score the opener. Manuel Neuer should be able to recover in time from his stomach infection. I expect Bayern to win this match with a two-goal cushion.