Talking Tactics: Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich

Fast Forward: Matchday 20

Hansi Flick will go head-to-head against Achim Beierlorzer. The former FC Cologne head coach seems to be following the same trajectory with respect to results as Sandro Schwarz. Mainz got rid of Schwarz after a dismal campaign as he claimed just three wins in 11 Bundesliga fixtures. Beierlorzer has also won only three games, although he has three more fixtures to maintain a better win percentage than Schwarz.

Nonetheless, Beierlorzer has a positive goal difference of one goal compared with Schwarz’s negative tally of 18 goals. In terms of the quality of chances being created, Beierlorzer’s total xG for Mainz clocked 1.5 per game, which is a slight improvement compared with Schwarz’s 1.27 per match. The defensive frailties, however, continue to exist. Mainz has a static xGA tally of 1.98 goals per game under both Beierlorzer and Schwarz.

Let’s zoom-in on Mainz’s Ruckrunde campaign for the 2019/20 season so far. The 05ers have conceded five goals while scoring two. Their expected points tally has been the lowest at 1.22. The reason behind such a low score is evident. Mainz have been creating low-quality chances. Concerning their fixtures against Freiburg and Monchengladbach, Mainz clocked an average xG of 0.07 per shot. Their opponents, on the other hand, have been able to get into threatening positions to score with an average xGA for Mainz clocked at 0.18 per shot in the same fixtures.

I foresee Beierlorzer to use a 4-2-3-1 formation against Bayern with the same starting eleven that was used against the Foals. This should see Ridle Baku and Jeremiah St. Juste playing in a double pivot set-up. Mainz are expected to apply mild pressure, using special triggers to up the intensity. Jean- Philippe Mateta and Boetius would lead the press through the first wave. Karim Onisiwo and Robin Quaison shall cover the wide areas during the defensive phase. This should see Mainz sitting in a 4-4-2 or even a 4-4-1-1 structure. A man-oriented pressing technique could be favoured by the 05ers.

On the other hand, the visitors should start Serge Gnabry on the right-wing and give Philippe Coutinho a place on the left-wing. Flick should continue with his midfield trio of Kimmich, Thiago, and Leon Goretzka after a phenomenal display against Schalke last week. Using a 4-3-3 would be an advantage for Bayern. If Alvaro Odriozola can start, Bayern can change this formation to a 3-4-3 during the build-up.

"Neuer Odriozola-Pavard-Alaba-Davies Thiago-Kimmich-Goretzka Gnabry-Lewandowski-Coutinho"

Making use of a 3-4-3 would allow Bayern to pile excessive pressure on Mainz. In the final third, this would give a numerical advantage to the Rekordmeister given that Mainz uses their full-backs to overlap. This shall further force Mainz to keep at least three defenders at the back. Moreover, this can facilitate a smoother build-up process for Bayern. Either of the full-backs can push forward with the other remaining at the back as a target man for a free pass. It would create a 3v2 situation in Bayern’s favour in the defensive third. Kimmich and Thiago can enjoy their space in the midfield.

This shall allow them to orchestrate the game effectively by acting as link-up players, supplying the ball from the mid to the final thirds. Their remit to bring the ball from the back would no more be a task in this situation. Considering that Mainz will use a 4-4-2 template to defend, Bayern can level them in the midfield with four men.

Bayern can also use third-man runs, allowing Davies to overlap on the left-wing. To facilitate this tactic, Coutinho can invert and position himself in the hole behind Lewandowski and Gnabry. It would resemble a 3-3-1-3 structure in the attack.

Based on the recent performances from both the teams, I expect Bayern to overpower Mainz, and add three more points to their tally in matchday 20. If the current form continues for both the sides, then Die Roten should win the match by a margin of at least four goals.

(Note: The stats have been procured from Understat.com)