Talking Tactics: Bayern Munich vs Schalke 04

Fast Forward: Matchday 19

Schalke kept their hopes for securing a place for UCL alive by winning their Ruckrunde opener last week. The Royal Blues won by two goals to nil against Borussia Monchengladbach. I will use data and statistics from this fixture to analyze the expected scenario for matchday 19 at Allianz Arena.

David Wagner chose a 4-4-2 structure for his side. Since Alexander Nubel was suspended, Markus Schubert started in the goal. Jonjoe Kenny, Ozan Kabak, Matija Nastatsic, and Bastian Ozcipka formed the defensive line. In the midfield, Daniel Caligiuri and Alessandro Schopf flanked Omar Mascarell and Suat Serdar from the right and left side, respectively. Benito Raman and Michael Gregoritsch led the attack upfront.

The statistics for the fixture held at the Veltins Arena supports for Schalke’s victory. Borussia Monchengladbach took 14 shots, one less than the hosts. However, there was an evident difference in the quality of these shots. The total xG tally for Schalke stood at 2 compared with the Foals’ 0.82. Further observing the positions of these shots, Schalke attempted just two from outside the box compared with Monchengladbach’s nine shots. This shows ho easily Schalke opened spaces in their visitor’s half.

Secondly, when out of possession, Schalke’s data represents a high pressing tactic used to attack in a jiffy. The hosts kept a lower amount of possession at 45%. Additionally, their PPDA score was 6.4, which was slightly short of Gladbach’s score of 6. This confirms Schalke’s approach of using most of their possession to create chances in a short period.

With Harit still a doubt for matchday 19, Schalke are expected to use the same squad against Bayern.

Die Roten will be buoyed with the return of Joshua Kimmich. The German should start in a double pivot role with Thiago Alcantara. Benjamin Pavard shall be moved in the center-back role, alongside David Alaba, if Alvaro Odriozola makes his debut for Die Roten in the right-back position. In attack, Serge Gnabry looks fit to start the match after his recuperation. He is expected to replace Ivan Perisic on the left-hand side. Thereby, Bayern might start in their preferred 4-2-3-1 formation.

"Neuer Odriozola-Pavard-Alaba-Davies Kimmich-Thiago Muller-Coutinho-Gnabry Lewandowski"

Wagner is expected to deploy aggressive pressing maneuvers from the onset of the match against the Bavarians. Schalke will aim to fight for the ball in all sections of the pitch. Gregoritsch will pose a major threat against Bayern. His ability to run in behind the defense should be given special attention. 54% of Schalke’s attacks originated from the right-hand side against Monchengladbach. Alaba and Davies are advised to exercise caution in the defensive zone. The Austrian should be given the duties to check Gregoritsch’s runs. Davies, on the other hand, can lock Caligiuri as his target.

In the attacking zone, Bayern can exploit the space behind Kabak. Schalke’s number four operates in a comparatively higher line than his partner, Nastasic. This is where Gnabry’s remit to operate as a second striker will come into play. Serge Gnabry can aim to invert inside near Coutinho. This proposition can further pull Kenny in the half-space, allowing Davies the space to connect with Lewandowski.

Bayern are, yet again, expected to dominate possession. Flick should, nonetheless, be wary of Schalke’s approach to attack from a medium block. I expect the bulk of the tussle taking place in the middle of the park. Furthermore, it will be a tough task for Bayern to find space through Schalke’s defense. Given the recent results and performances, I back Bayern to bag three points at the Allianz Arena. I predict the game to finish with a score of two-one in Bayern’s favour.

(Note: Stats and other data have been procured from WhoScored.com and Understat.com)