With Die Mannschaft’s World Cup woes one of the hottest topics in world soccer, here’s a way too early look at how Germany might shape up at Euro 2020.
The 2018 World Cup will be remembered for many things. There have already been several outstanding moments through the group stage and round of 16 of the competition. One of the most shocking moments, though, was the disappointing display from reigning world champions Germany.
Die Mannschaft were hardly a shadow of their former selves. The many questions surrounding Joachim Low’s selection proved legitimate, as the Germans failed to convince in any of their three matches.
The future of Die Mannschaft is speculative at best. However, one thing is for certain: change is necessary. The modern game is evolving and Germany are on the verge of being left behind. Joachim Low opted to stick with his tried and true 4-2-3-1 in Russia and paid the price for his traditionalist, safe approach.
In the end, his possession-based directionless approach was exposed by teams who had no business beating Germany. While his players may not have performed to their absolute best, the majority of the blame for the Germans’ embarrassment has to fall on Low’s shoulders.
There’s plenty of room for change, but it must start with Joachim Low’s squad selection. Germany will no doubt look much different at Euro 2020 than they did this summer. So, here’s a far too early look at who might represent the Nationalelf two years from now.
Goalkeepers
No player can be pardoned for Germany’s disappointment this summer, but Manuel Neuer comes close. The Bayern Munich goalkeeper could have done little more to help his nation succeed in Russia. At just 32-years-old Neuer still has plenty of time left in his career. Captain of both his club and country, Neuer’s leadership will be invaluable to a young German squad two years from now, when he’ll still surely be the best ‘keeper on planet earth.
However, there is a decent chance Barcelona’s Marc-Andre ter Stegen overtakes Neuer before Euro 2020. The 26-year-old isn’t so bad himself and is the heir apparent to Germany’s goalkeeping throne. Even if he isn’t first choice for his nation two years from now, ter Stegen will still surely make the 23-man squad.
Paris Saint-Germain backup Kevin Trapp narrowly edged out former Leverkusen ‘keeper Bernd Leno to make Germany’s 2018 squad. Now with Arsenal, Leno has a lot to prove if he wants to make the Euro 2020 squad.
Rather than either making the squad, though, I predict it will be FC Koln youngster Timo Horn who joins Neuer and Ter Stegen as Germany’s third-string goalkeeper representative.
Defense
In defense, Germany will be tasked with finding the balance between experienced defenders and young, athletic alternatives. Five of Die Mannschaft’s current corps of World Cup defenders should receive their call-ups for Euro 2020.
Mats Hummels is an absolute rock and leader at the back. He’ll be 31-years-old by 2020, still a solid age for a center-back who has always relied on his tactical understanding and strength rather than pace. The leadership and poise he’ll bring to anchor Germany’s backline will be paramount. Let’s just hope he works on his heading between now and then.
Both Antonio Rudiger and Niklas Sule will also retain their place in the squad, meanwhile, and could even be starters alongside Hummels in a back three. Jerome Boateng and Matthias Ginter will both miss out on the tournament. I expect the former to move on from Bayern Munich within the next two seasons, and questions over his fitness and form keep him from making this predicted squad.
In place of the pair, youngsters Jonathan Tah and Thilo Kehrer will step in and provide a heavy dose of athleticism to the German backline. However, it wouldn’t be too surprising if Boateng is still playing under Low in two year’s time. If that’s the case, expect Schalke’s Kehrer to miss the squad.
Joshua Kimmich, of course, will be a shoe-in for a spot on the German national team in 2020, as he should be for years to come. I also expect Jonas Hector to maintain his place in Germany’s 23-man squad, while Leverkusen youngster Benjamin Henrichs — thrice capped already — could fill in for either, or perhaps even start on the left if needed.
Should the Germans opt for a three-man defensive line, Mats Hummels and one of Antonio Rudiger or Jonathan Tah will start alongside Niklas Sule, while Joshua Kimmich and Jonas Hector/Benjamin Henrichs provide width as wingbacks. If they stick with a four-man defense, Rudiger/Tah gets the cut and Hector solidifies his place to provide defensive stability.
Midfield
Germany’s biggest area of concern at this summer’s World Cup was arguably their midfield, which was practically nonexistent for much of their three games. Defensive cover was scant and creativity was lacking. Surely there will be some changes in this department before 2020.
Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil, two major names of the German national team for the past decade, could be staying home for Euro 2020. Sebastian Rudy — whose World Cup debut was cut short thanks to a broken nose — will also miss out.
Toni Kroos, who at once looked to be Germany’s 2018 World Cup hero after his game-winner against Sweden, will likely retain his spot as Die Mannschaft’s metronomic presence in the middle of the park. If new Bayern Munich signing Leon Goretzka continues his rapid development, he’ll be a surefire choice to partner Kroos in midfield.
Manchester City’s Ilkay Gundogan will provide another creative midfield option, though he must perform much better than he did in Russia. Similarly, I predict the versatile Julian Draxler to still be part of Germany’s national side in 2020. But the extent to which he features will largely be dependent on how he does at club level over the next two seasons.
Emre Can, who missed out on the 2018 World Cup, will bring some more physicality to the midfield, provided his move to Juventus doesn’t completely tank. And Borussia Dortmund man Julian Weigl, who will be 24 in 2020, will add a true defensive midfielder to the squad.
Attack
Germany’s attack, like every other area, will be in need of rework before Euro 2020. The tactics and shape are in serious need of an overhaul, adaption to the modern game is on the cards.
Three of the players who made the trip to Russia should still be in the squad in two years. Thomas Muller will be 30-years-old by then, but I predict him to still play an important role under Joachim Low, even if it is just encouragement from the sidelines or a role as a late-game Maverick to cause chaos in the opponents box.
Meanwhile, youngsters Timo Werner and Julian Brandt will also be in the 2020 squad. The former should still be the focal point of Germany’s attack, but he’ll have to step his game up. The latter could be a big player for his nation if his brief cameos in Russia are any indication.
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Joining Muller, Werner and Brandt in attack will be three newcomers to the national side. Leroy Sane — whose exclusion from this year’s World Cup was controversial to say the least — should be a surefire starter in any new system Low develops for his national side.
Bayern Munich youngster Serge Gnabry is coming off a superb season on loan at Hoffenheim. In fact, if it wasn’t for an unfortunately timed injury, he could even have been on the plane to Russia. The versatile forward is teeming with talent. Should he continue his development in the Bavarian capital, he’ll be a no-brainer for Low’s side in 2020.
Lastly, I’m going with Borussia Dortmund’s Maximillian Philipp to round out the German attack. He’s another versatile forward who provides a solid option at striker. However, young Fiete Arp of Hamburg — who could be joining Bayern sooner or later — is another one to keep your eye on. He’ll still only be 20-years-old in 2020, but he could provide a more traditional center-forward option for Low if his development continues.
If not Philipp or Arp, both Kevin Volland and Mark Uth could earn a spot on the team if they prove their worth at club level over the next two seasons.
Tactical set-up
Change is needed for the German national team. But change just for the sake of change is not a good approach. Joachim Low must find a tactical approach that suits his men and works with the modern game.
As the world soccer “meta” shifts away from possession-based play toward faster transitions from attack to defense, formations with three central defenders are again growing in popularity.
Joachim Low is no stranger to this type of approach, either. Germany won the 2017 Confederations Cup predominantly playing in a 3-4-2-1. And that’s the formation I predict Germany will find success with come 2020.
"Neuer Rudiger – Sule – Hummels Kimmich – Goretzka – Kroos – Hector Gnabry – Sane Werner"
Neuer keeps his place in goal, as I fully expect him to still be the best goalkeeper in the world at 34-years-old. Ahead of him Niklas Sule stars in the center of a three-man back line, flanked by both Antonio Rudiger and Mats Hummels.
Joshua Kimmich and Jonas Hector — both of whom’s overlapping runs are already a major part of Germany’s play — provide width from right and left-wingback.
Tucked just ahead and inside of them, Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane will provide pace and creativity while also offering genuine goal-scoring threats as inside forwards. The pacy Timo Werner will lead the front line.
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As already mentioned, this is entirely speculative and will more than likely be way off. The important thing, though, is that Joachim Low makes the necessary changes to his squad and tactical approach before Euro 2020, or Die Mannschaft could be in for yet another embarrassment.